Sunday, December 30, 2007

Intrinsic value baselines

See this link http://www.valuepro.net/index.shtml
for free online valuations of intrinsic value. Software created by finance professors from Pennsylvania State University I have tried it....seems useable at first glance.
..however we should remember that all valuation models should be used conservatively and the intelligent investor ought to understand the basis of all underlying assumptions.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Recent Citigroup upgrades and downgrades

recent Citigroup analyst actions :
Citigroup downgraded to "hold" Sandler O'Neill
12/14/07
Citigroup "buy" Punk Ziegel & Co.
12/13/07
Citigroup "overweight," target price reduced Lehman Brothers
12/13/07
Citigroup "sell" Deutsche Securities
12/12/07
Citigroup "market perform" Punk Ziegel & Co.
11/28/07
Citigroup upgraded to "buy" Punk Ziegel & Co.
11/28/07
Citigroup "neutral" Credit Suisse
11/20/07
Citigroup "sell," target price reduced Deutsche Securities
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See other latest analyst upgrades and downgrades at :
http://www.newratings.com/

Friday, December 21, 2007

Value Investing guest speakers at Canadian MBA school

http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/video.htm#Whitman
Watch and listen to the masters at the above link. Includes the iconic Martin Whitman giving very incisive interview to various questions about investing, his portfolio, risk management etc

My criteria for stock selection

Currently I am focused on using the following criteria to screen my stocks :
1. Financial strength :
Market cap > $1 bil (= reasonable size, stock liquidity, analyst coverage, institutional ownership)
Consistent profitability for the last 10 years.
For an income stock I am looking for uninterrupted dividends for past 20 years

2. Valuation and Growth ratios:
P/E less than 20, P/B less than 2.5
- according to Graham P/E x P/B should be less than 22.5
EPS growth 15% and above annualised over last 5 yrs
Sales Growth 15 - 20%
Gross margins 25 - 40%, and trending higher
Positive operating cash flow over last 5 qtrs, and trending higher

3. Management effectiveness :
ROE > 25%, ROA > 15%, ROS > 17 - 25%

4. Operating Leverage :
Debt/Cap <25%>
My strategy:
I try to establish the intrinsic value by using a DCF model to estimate future free cash flows FCF, then compare the analyst estimates to current market values to assess a fair value for the stock.
I also look at the quality of management, net asset values NAV, and the return on invested capital ROIC.
Apart from good operating indices, I am also looking for the company's "moat" i.e visible competitive advantage, its place in the industry, pricing power and trends.
I am looking for the company's historical ability and future potential to create shareholder value.
Overall, I want to buy a good company at a good price.
Next, I establish a margin of safety and wait for the price to reach that level.
After buying, I will hold it as long as necessary.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Current view on Bank stocks

Guys,
I advise we stay off the banking sector for now. I do not think we have seen the bottom yet as the US sub-prime mortgage crisis is not yet over. Most analysts believe that Citigroup will likely cut the dividend in Q1 2008 which will cause further erosion in share values.
I see BAC as a good buy but it becomes a screaming buy with some margin of safety if or when it falls below $40/shr. I recommend this stock because it is still a very solid bank with good fundamentals and relatively minimal exposure to sub-prime related writedowns. It is a good income stock as the dividend seems solidly secure in the face of current crisis in the sector.

Even at $40/shr you are getting a sweet 6% dividend yield